EntranceHow will the Earth's climate change in the near future? “Natural anomalies will become more. A series of tornadoes hit Tatarstan
Unprecedented downpours in Moscow, Sochi, Kursk, Voronezh, tornadoes in Dnepropetrovsk - what is happening to the climate? Answered this question Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Vladimir Polevanov.
CLIMATE WEAPONS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT
One of the popular versions of the current weather disasters is climate weapon. Say, America deliberately opened up the abyss of heaven over Russia in June in order to completely destroy the Russian economy, coupled with economic sanctions...
Nonsense, the United States has absolutely nothing to do with it, they suffer even more from climatic cataclysms, - says the former Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation in the Chernomyrdin government, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Vladimir Polevanov. - In January-February, abnormal frosts and snowfalls reigned in America, dozens of people froze to death, airports and schools were closed. Even the geyser in the national park has frozen over… The weather is changing all over the Northern Hemisphere. South is relatively quiet.
So what's going on with the climate?
The planet is now smoothly rolling into the beginning of the next ice age.
- Yes you? But what about global warming?
The worldwide hysteria about global warming was deliberately fanned. The Kyoto Protocol (officially the main weapon in the fight against global warming) is a political and economic club in the hands of the United States against developing countries and other competitors. So that they do not develop their industry. But I am not acting as a politician and a conspiracy theorist.
I am a professional geologist and I know that in 1960-1998 the USSR and the USA carried out a very expensive drilling program in Greenland and Antarctica with more than a dozen wells that penetrated the glaciers to their very foundation. This made it possible to obtain invaluable material for reliable climatic conclusions.
The study of the ice core (rock samples) showed that the epochs of warming and cooling regularly alternated. Over the past 450 thousand years, there have been 6 climatic cycles. We live in the era of the ending interglacial period and naturally roll into the period of the "great cooling".
The first factor in the inevitability of a new cold snap is the cooling of the Gulf Stream. The warm current begins in the Gulf of Mexico and goes to our Murmansk, Severnaya Zemlya, therefore the Barents Sea is non-freezing. However, the Gulf Stream last years weakens, carries less and less heat to Europe. This winter, the Murmansk port has frozen over, and this is a rarity! Previously, the Kola Bay was covered with ice no more than once every 25-30 years, and in the new century this has already happened twice.
The second factor is a sharp decrease in the number of spots on the Sun, not yet explained by scientists. Solar power is declining. And the Sun is the main heater of the Earth. To these factors was added a third, man-made. The explosion of an oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, from where the Gulf Stream originates. The weather change accelerated after that catastrophe.
EARLIER FLOODED EUROPE, NOW US
- We are surprised by Moscow tropical downpours.
In recent years, we have seen a similar picture of cars flooded to the roof, stormy streams on TV more than once on the streets of European cities. Now it floods us. Air currents have changed dramatically. The climate is changing throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Similar climatic foci on both sides of the Atlantic will become more and more frequent.
- And how soon will Russia freeze?
There will be enough warmth for our age, don't worry. It will even be warmer than now. From the point of view of geology, this is an instantaneous process of glacier formation - thousands of years. By the standards of human life - a gigantic period. So congratulations - we live in an era of climate change. But at the very beginning!
This summer will surely be remembered by many for extremely cold weather. To questions about what is happening with the climate, whether global catastrophes on a cosmic scale are possible, what it depends on and whether to buy a fur coat for the summer - in an interview RIA "New Day" answered Professor, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Soil Science, Moscow State University Vladimir Goncharov.
Vladimir Goncharov
"New Day": What is happening with the climate on the planet? Are we facing any climate catastrophes?
Vladimir Goncharov: Yes, summer does not please us. But if you remember, then in general, until May, everything was within the normal range, and only in May we began to grumble with displeasure at the weather. But there have been cold summers before. Remember, even the film has a wonderful "Cold Summer of 1953"? True, as I heard, according to meteorological observations, the 52nd was cold. So nothing supernatural happens today.
In today's situation, according to climatologists, a powerful Atlantic anticyclone with high pressure is to blame. And along its northern border, a cyclone has formed, which brings cold and rain from the Arctic, because. in the European part of Russia, air transport has changed and goes from north to south, and not from west to east.
If we see what we observe today every year for a long time, then we can talk about climate change, a decrease in the interseasonal amplitude, and that average temperature decreases in summer.
Some time ago in Moscow there was a summer heat and very warm winters when there was practically no snow on New Year's Eve for several years in a row. However, then everything switched and became normal. In the meantime, we see that yes, the beginning of summer is cold and not very pleasant.
Now it is difficult to speak and make any assumptions about what else can be expected. All our dissatisfaction and reasoning relate mainly to the weather forecast, and in order to build long-term hypotheses, we need fundamental research climate.
Climate is a long-term (about several decades) weather regime. Weather, unlike climate, is a momentary state.
"New Day": And what about the spring-summer fires in Siberia and Far East? Is this the result of global warming?
Vladimir Goncharov: Fires are, first of all, dry weather and human sloppiness, and sometimes a crime. And certainly not a pattern of climate.
Let's take spring fires, which start from burning last year's grass. This is human stupidity - to save gasoline and diesel fuel, they set fire to last year's stubble, so that it would be easier to plow later. And in the spring, a very good breeze blows, which quickly inflates everything to catastrophic proportions.
I'm not talking about such criminal acts as a special forest fell. After that, permission is given to develop forest hectares, and the profit has gone. It's already a skill law enforcement. And this is happening not only in our country. I was once in Greece - there, too, large forests burned out, and the territory was “liberated”. And it was believed that the fires did not occur by chance. How to treat it? It's just a crime.
Of course the weather is dry. But then our attitude towards nature must be extremely cautious. We must understand that even any outstanding match, although it sounds trite and is known from school, can lead to catastrophic events. Thousands of hectares of forest are burning, people are dying. This is already a culture of man, a culture of attitude to nature and to oneself in particular.
"New Day": Who makes the decisive contribution - man or nature itself? Emissions into the atmosphere or the activity of the Sun - what affects the planet more?
Vladimir Goncharov: The Earth's climate depends primarily on the activity of the Sun. It determines the temperature on the Earth's surface. After all, even the word climate itself is translated as "tilt" - the angle of incidence sun rays. And this activity is characterized by solar cycles with different periods - 11, 22, 80-90, 210, 2300 and 6000 years.
Knowledge of these cycles makes it possible to explain climatic changes on Earth.
The more scientific fundamental knowledge we have about climate formation, the more justified our weather expectations will be.
Yes, in recent years we have seen sharp climate jumps. In the last hundred years, man has been making significant changes to the natural environment, and, consequently, to the climatic situation of the planet as a whole. natural environment and the atmosphere no longer has time to work out, to return to a certain balance.
As a result, atypical or extreme weather events occur, and there are more and more of them every year.
"New Day": Is it possible to say that passions are being whipped up?
Vladimir Goncharov: I believe that sometimes there is an unjustified escalation, which fits especially well with dissatisfaction with current weather conditions. But then again - the weather is a momentary state, but in general ...
New Day: Is global warming still happening? Or, on the contrary, will we freeze, as some climatologists promise?
Vladimir Goncharov: Do you want to understand whether to buy a fur coat or sell it?
According to the World Meteorological Organization at the UN, today, compared with the pre-industrial period (at the end of the 19th century), the temperature on Earth has increased by one degree Celsius. This is a significant change.
Many people confuse global warming with the greenhouse effect. Both phenomena mean an increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth.
However, in the case of the greenhouse effect, the reason for the increase in temperature has been established - an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.) in the Earth's atmosphere.
This is the most popular hypothesis to date.
Replenishment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide comes from various sources. Volcanoes are the most powerful among the natural ones. Their gases consist mainly of carbon dioxide and water vapor. Or the ocean - many aquatic organisms create their skeletons by absorbing calcium carbonate. Then, when dying, limestone layers are formed, which, when dissolved, also become a source of carbon dioxide. Emission from the soil during decomposition is also observed. organic matter, carbonates, etc.
In recent years, more and more carbon dioxide has been released into the atmosphere as a result of industrial human activity, but this source is not the main one. For example, one volcanic eruption produces such emissions that, in comparison with them, the entire fight against anthropogenic CO2 emissions is nothing.
Therefore, for the time being, we are not able to influence the phenomena of a cosmic and planetary scale.
"New Day": Some scientists claim that a "little ice age" is coming. So is it or not?
Vladimir Goncharov: The "Little Ice Age" refers to a sharp cooling from the 13th to the 16th century and from the 16th to the 19th century, which is described in the chronicles or written by artists.
But, as it turns out, the average annual temperature decrease during this period was 0.5 degrees, not 1. During the glaciation, the average temperatures on Earth fell by 8 degrees. A periods cold weather were associated not with global climate change, not with a decrease in solar activity, but with volcanic eruptions.
Therefore, climatologists doubt the existence of a "Little Ice Age". And the opinion about his return is completely incomprehensible against the background of a temperature increase of 1 degree in the last hundred years. Some, on the contrary, associate the rise in temperature on Earth today with the end of this "period".
"New Day": Stephen Hawking predicts that the Earth will become a red-hot Venus. However, he said, we can prevent a catastrophe "if we act now." Can we say that he is a little "bent"?
Vladimir Goncharov: I think yes. I spoke about the spasmodic nature of climate fluctuations, because the natural atmosphere does not have time to return to its original balance in three years - this, of course, has human influence. But I repeat once again - it seems to me that there is no need to talk about any global climate change now.
As for long-term forecasts, they are carried out by scientists working with general circulation models based on hydrodynamic equations. This requires a scenario of how, in particular, the CO2 content in the atmosphere will change. We need good basic research.
Once again I will say that the planet Earth is a fairly stable system. And it is probably still too early to prepare for some kind of global catastrophes on a cosmic scale.
"New Day": Russia will be good or bad from global warming?
Vladimir Goncharov: So far, there is a negative impact on agriculture, on the harvest. Whether it's hot or this rainy summer...
If it is global, it will touch the whole Earth. And then it will be necessary to talk not about the territory of our country, but about the entire planet as a whole.
Here again I want to say about the cyclical nature of the climate, the planet Earth went through similar periods hundreds or thousands of years ago. It seems to me that this is an occasion for the entire scientific community to think about how to get through what the Earth's climate is preparing with minimal losses. If there is another cycle with complex climatic conditions for a person, you need to try to simulate these negative climate changes, make a correct forecast. To do this, indeed, the entire scientific community must be consolidated to solve problems on a planetary scale.
Moscow, Olga Vetrova
Moscow. Other news 12.07.17
© 2017, RIA "New Day"
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What happens to climate and atmosphere?
Against the background of abnormal weather, when it snows and hail in June, and the temperature is more typical for the beginning of May, many people have a question about the causes of these phenomena.
And though cold summer months and snowy winters, those who are over 30 years old remember, there were not so many records then.
Of course, the media are also to blame for the fact that heavy rain turns into an "Old Testament flood", and the temperature, 1.5-2 degrees below the long-term average, into the "beginning of the ice age" ... A significant part of the records refers to the "records of the day" - when weather indicators of that particular day are compared. Within 20, at best - hundreds of years. That is, there was hail in the neighboring days - but it is no longer included in the selection for comparison. We have a new record and a reason to cry out alone about the upcoming "Maunder Minimum" and a new ice age; others about global warming. The third to announce the arrival of Nibiru.
Meteorologists, on the other hand, just shrug their shoulders and try not to become extreme, in the face of clearly changed climate and weather patterns.
So what happened, what global changes cause climate instability and frequent weather excesses?
For starters, it would be nice to understand how it used to be in order to see what has changed.
Before they were stable climatic zones, the contents of which were not particularly mixed. The Arctic itself, the North of Eurasia is already warmed by the "Gulf Stream" - as far as its air currents are enough ... Yes, yes, you heard right. Water warm current The Gulf Stream transfers heat very slowly. heated water from Gulf of Mexico, will reach the shores of Normandy in a few years, and not earlier.
Can she not cool down during this time? Can this critically affect the climate? Yes, and warm water will approach the frozen mainland, it will just wash the shores. As it happens in Alaska and in Greenland.
The main heat transfer occurs with air masses that circulate from heated Africa to the Gulf of Mexico, and then join the masses of a high-altitude jet stream that carries air from west to east. so-called. "western transfer". The high-altitude jet stream is called differently, Jet Stream (jet stream). It crosses the Atlantic and brings warm air from the latitudes of Texas and South Carolina.
And it brings quickly! Storms that occurred on the east coast of the United States are moving east and reach Europe in 3-5 days.
Jet Stream separates climatic zones. From the north side, it involves and carries cool air, from the south it carries away warm streams.
And scientists confirm this:
Another important point that I would like to emphasize is that the mean seasonal anomalies atmospheric circulation in temperate latitudes depend very little on ocean surface temperature anomalies, including such large anomalies as were observed this summer in European Russia. Specialists in seasonal weather forecasting argue that only 10-30% of the deviations from the “norm” of the average seasonal temperature at any point in Russia are due to anomalies in ocean surface temperature, and the remaining 70-90% are the result of natural variability of the atmosphere, the root cause of which is unequal heating high and low latitudes and it is almost impossible to predict which for a period of more than two or three weeks (see also "Science and Life" No. 12, 2010).
That is why it is wrong to consider the observed weather anomalies in Europe in the summer of 2010 or in any other season as the result of only the influence of the ocean. If this were the case, seasonal or monthly weather deviations from the "norm" would be easily predicted, since large anomalies in ocean temperature, as a rule, are inertial and live for at least several months. But so far, no forecasting center in the world has been able to make a good seasonal weather forecast.
In many ways, thanks to him, it remains cold in the Arctic, and hot in the subtropics. If there were no Western Transfer (and it depends on the rotation of the Earth), the temperature difference would tend to even out.
One of the largest links in the general circulation of the atmosphere is the circumpolar vortex. Its formation is due to cold centers in the polar region and heat centers in the tropical zone. Circumpolar motion and its manifestation - western transport - are a stable and characteristic feature of the general atmospheric circulation.
the concept of a high-altitude frontal zone (UFZ) was introduced, and the strong westerly winds associated with it began to be called jet streams or jets. The UFZ usually includes one or more fronts and is the place where mobile frontal cyclones and anticyclones appear, moving in the direction of the main (leading) flow. During periods strong development The meridionality of the UFZ processes, as it were, "wriggles", bending around high-altitude ridges from the north and hollows from the south.
As you can see, these are the foundations of modern knowledge about the atmosphere. The key factors that determine the weather are the cause of cyclones and anticyclones.
And yet, when you last time Have you heard about the influence of the Jet Stream (high-altitude jet stream) on the weather in your area? :)
If you read the weather news portals of Western countries, then every week you will see maps in the commercials, where their meteorologists popularly explain about the impact of the Jet Stream on the weather in the region. We don't have that. As if storm fronts and cyclones arise on their own, out of the blue!
Animated explanation of the jet stream from the Met Office (the British school of meteorology, considered one of the best in the world in terms of forecast accuracy):
As the announcer comments, the Jet Stream fluctuates seasonally, rising to the north or sinking to the south; along with it, the cold air masses of the Arctic air invade the territories of Europe and America, or the hot air of the subtropics rises to latitudes unusual for it.
The direction of wind movement from west to east is called latitudinal; direction from north to south, or from south to north - meridional.
Here it is in Russian:
But back to Jet Stream and its displacement. What happens when this huge atmospheric river air masses curves far north or south?
Actually, the process is interdependent, air masses can move the jet stream (Jet), and it serves as a watershed between them, dividing the climatic zones:
As you can see, hot air presses the Jet stream up, cold air - down.
As a result, when cold air masses come to a warm place, rain falls:
(green indicates rainy area, dark green indicates heavy rainfall)
And when vice versa, then too. Mixing of heated and cold air leads to precipitation and violent atmospheric activity, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, accompanied by strong winds, mixing of atmospheric layers with hail.
Familiar with the weather reports? :)
Let's see how it looks on the maps of Western weather forecasters:
(rain - rain, snow - snow, severe t-storms - severe thunderstorms, showers - precipitation, colder - colder, cool - cool, milder - average weather, heavy rainfall - heavy rain, humid - moisture, windy - windy, ice - ice, frigid - cold)
So you see what a variety of critical weather events generates a shift and mixing of atmospheric masses of different quality!
Simplicity and clarity of explanation arose in America not by itself, but under the pressure of necessity.
They have long come to the idea that any instruction should be as clear as possible. Not for the one who composes it, but for the one who will use it ...
Well, in our country, meteorologists make a product for themselves, apparently, and do not condescend to simple explanations. Or maybe they themselves do not understand, judging by the complete disregard for such a weather-determining factor as a high-altitude jet stream.
Let's see if it had an effect in recent events, when it flooded Berlin, swept through Poland, flooded Vilnius and hit Moscow?
And some facts... Weather Digest:
A tornado was observed on the Volga
In the Verkhneuslonsky district of Tatarstan, vacationers on the banks of the Volga on July 2 witnessed the formation of a tornado. They managed to film a water tornado that swept right before their eyes in the immediate vicinity of the pleasure boat.
Tornado in the steppes of Khakassia
Large hail fell in Bashkortostan
On the night of July 3, a hail the size of egg. Damage to rooftops and affected agricultural land is reported.
Spain hit by hail
An abnormal amount of hail has fallen in the city of Girona in the autonomous community of Catalonia. In just 30 minutes, the streets were covered with snowdrifts from hail, which reached a height of up to half a meter.
Car traffic stopped, then the hail began to melt and real rivers flowed through the streets, lifeguards waist-deep in water evacuated people from cars stuck in snowdrifts and water.
A series of tornadoes hit Tatarstan
On the evening of June 1, a hurricane swept across Tatarstan and several powerful tornadoes were recorded in different places. ...
Melting permafrost accelerates climate change
Monitoring changes in wetland abundance in regions where permafrost is melting should be a key part of efforts to predict future rates of climate change, new research suggests.
Melting permafrost is caused global warming, which heats the northern high latitudes faster than other parts of the Earth. The release of permafrost carbon into the atmosphere could accelerate the pace of climate change. If even a small fraction of the carbon is emitted as methane (CH4), a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, then the feedback becomes even more significant.
Here's the weather forecast for July...
Ministry of Emergency Situations warns of natural disasters in July.
The Russians are also expected in July natural disasters- sudden changes in temperature strong wind, abnormal precipitation, said the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation Vladimir Puchkov.
"June was difficult and tense. The weather forecast for July indicates that we will have cataclysms," he said at a conference call.
Puchkov explained that "somewhere there may be regular temperature maxima, somewhere sharp temperature drops, high wind speeds, precipitation."
"We must professionally work out all the issues of protecting the life and health of people, the safety of citizens during this summer period," the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations stressed.
What happens to climate and atmosphere? Part 2
Therefore, various kinds of hurricanes come to Russia, mainly from places where atmospheric flows mix - from the Atlantic.
On the example of the recent storm that captured the capital of Germany, Poland, Vilnius, Moscow and many settlements smaller, it is interesting to see the participation of different weather factors.
Images - maps of winds at different heights, temperature, pressure and precipitation, taken from a public service.
The cyclone is in full swing, spinning over Germany. Cold air enters it from the north, hot air is pumped in from the south, from Africa. So the weather forecasters of the Hydrometeorological Center would say.
And here is the reason for the sudden mixing of air masses:
Pronounced meridional transfer. Jet Stream, instead of the usual direction from west to east, turned to the north. Altitude about 10 km.
Here, some streams can be seen better, the height is 2 km.
Having formed, this cyclone covered the Baltic States and the European part of Russia with its "blades" - thunderstorm fronts.
Since by this time the territory of the Russian Plain was cooled by the "cold summer of the 17th", the hot air masses, moving to the east, caused violent thunderstorm activity.
So you see how easy it is to use different terminology without mentioning the significant factors of weather cuisine.
The storm front is to blame. And where did he come from, why such a coating? So the cyclone is to blame who produced it. Where is the cyclone from? The nervousness of the climate, sir... Such a shitty summer...
In fact, we were witnesses to a process similar to what is happening on Tornado Alley.
You listen to the analysis from Phobos, and you hear: an anticyclone breaks through from the north, Atlantic cyclones bring a lot of moisture and heat... An anticyclone from the south helps to pump Atlantic heat into Russia...
It seems that enemies are everywhere, and there is no explanation for the reasons for what is happening. Where does all this come from, and most importantly, why?
The presenters talk about abnormal heat in Greece and Eastern Europe, and abnormal coolness with rains on the Russian Plain. Any conclusions, at least the slightest, can be drawn from this? As they say in America - they explain it in 2 minutes so that it becomes clear to blacks what is happening today and what to expect in a few days!
The most interesting thing is that weather forecasters use the same interactive maps - in any case, they appeared in forecasts in recent times:
But! As you can see, there is no Jet Stream on them. Because these are maps of the surface wind)) On which only local details are visible, but God forbid, no large-scale process.
Otherwise, the audience will have questions - what a huge whirlwind, and why its bends so suspiciously coincide with the places of cyclones and anticyclones!
We cannot assume that meteorologists do not know how to switch the map in height. Then why do they stubbornly continue to ignore the main weather factor - the Jet Stream?
It is possible that this is wrecking, using backward technologies.
After all, not only viewers of TV channels receive a blizzard about the struggle and unity of atmospheric phenomena.
As follows from interviews with people from Roshydrometcenter, the founders of the Gismeteo company, they supply their software not only to Roshydromet, but also to the army, special services... Do you understand?
In 1984, businessmen, together with Yuri Yusupov, left work at the main computer center of Roshydromet and created their own project. Shmelkin says that they are almost always engaged in similar tasks - finding software solutions for professional meteorologists.
The state has become an important client of the company. Map Maker sold the GIS Meteo software package to Roshydromet and other organizations (for example, the military). The complex includes software and computer systems - a couple of servers and a number of workstations (computers with installed programs). The cost of one workplace for the customer is about 50 thousand dollars.
On the this moment Roshydromet purchased about 150 Meteo GIS kits, military structures - more than 100. The FSB, railway workers, aviation and other organizations use MapMaker software packages.
However, this is not enough for enterprising businessmen...
Over the past seven years, the Gismeteo site has generated the lion's share of the profits.
RBC offered to post links to their articles on the site. “They promised absolutely unrealistic money for those times - 500 thousand rubles a month,” says Shmelkin. “We didn’t always earn that much back then. The contract with RBC made it possible to immediately increase the salaries of employees several times.”
it turned out that the site began to bring more profit than the development and implementation of programs. The technological component is developing further, however, in terms of revenue, sales of GIS Meteo cannot now be compared with the Gismeteo website.
As you can see, Gismeteo is more interested in selling advertising space on its Ukrainian and Belarusian websites. Where news regularly appears about "militants from Russia, who are again the brave cyborgs are detaining", and "Donetsk gangs". It is time to raise the question of what government the suppliers work for Russian army. It looks like Ukrainian!
More about the Gismeteo website and posting anti-Russian propaganda there - for good money, of course.
And in such an environment, when all services use software and models from one campaign, how can meteorologists from Phobos, whether from Hydromet, suddenly “discover” for viewers and customers who have been fed one thing for 20 years that in fact everything is not at all so. This is fraught not only with disgrace, but also lawsuits of considerable size. Plus, professional pride does not allow us to recognize the correctness of our Western colleagues, who have not hidden from society for a long time the role and scale of the influence of high-altitude jet streams (jet stream) on the weather.
However, given the anti-Russian activities of Gismeteo on its Ukrainian and Belarusian domains, direct sabotage can also be expected.
But let's digress from the Ukrainian topic and return to the abnormal weather in Russia. Rain, cold, and sometimes snow, got the inhabitants of many regions of the country.
The mixing of cold and hot air masses in the process of meridional transport ensured the active formation of cyclones and abundant precipitation.
But what does Jet Stream have to do with it?
We turn again to interactive maps, a little earlier:
This is the reason for the cold May and June. The bend of the Jet Stream, along the eastern edge of which Arctic air masses entered Russia.
Therefore, it was abnormally warm in the Urals and Siberia, because hot air from the Black Sea and the Caspian was actively flowing along the lower edge of the Jet Stream.
And since, I repeat again, the process goes in a pronounced meridian direction, the collision of air masses of different quality forms giant whirlwinds - cyclones, with precipitation volumes unusual for the place and time.
Here are the areas of increased and reduced pressure, exactly where the jet stream turns, to the right (clockwise, an anticyclone forms), or to the left (counterclockwise, a cyclone forms):
That is, this yellow anticyclone in Europe, it is not "blocking" at all, which allegedly prevents the jet stream from passing along the usual route from west to east. It is formed due to the whirl of the Jet Stream! And it was abnormally warm there, yes. Fires in Portugal, that's all. The air moves from south to north, hot from Africa is sucked in.
Here is the temperature map of that period, so as not to be unfounded. Appreciate the heating of Europe, and admire the influx of Arctic air into the Russian Plain, while heated masses enter Siberia from the southwest.
Clearly on the borders of the Jet Stream.
Those who carefully read the article will certainly have a question: what is the reason for such a change in the behavior of high-altitude jet streams, why did they begin to bend so strongly to the north? There are only assumptions here. For example, that the rotation of the Earth slows down, the speed of the Jet Stream drops, it begins to behave more freely. Like it or not, it is difficult to judge.
We can only state facts and accumulate observations.
Can high-altitude jet streams be influenced by experiments and the directed influence of American military stations on the atmosphere? Definitely, they influence - as well as large-scale spraying of various substances in the atmosphere. Otherwise, in the absence of results, the Pentagon and the US government would not approve the budget for the construction of more and more stations, which, in fact, cover the entire Earth.
Millions of copper needles sprayed into the upper layers of the atmosphere to improve the reflection of powerful pulses from these stations have changed its properties and serve as a "mirror" for the further application of military technologies not limited by any arms treaty.
At the same time, the military is a special, separate caste, which may not give a damn about the fact that their experiments affect their own civilian population. After all, their goal is a superweapon.
And she justifies any sacrifice, as we know from history...
Addition for those who actively deny the existence of the above factors. Forecasters, apparently, have already received a scolding for poor-quality coverage of the situation, and were forced to get into textbooks in order to somehow explain the reasons. It's even funny how they try their best not to mention the "white elephant"!
Causes of the cold second half of spring and early summer
For the third month in a row, the atmospheric situation in Eurasia is determined by large Rossby waves. Having increased in amplitude and become inactive, they form large weather waves with different signs in adjacent regions. Yes, over Eastern Europe the hollow of this wave is located, which determines the protracted period of unstable cool weather, and over Western Europe and Siberia - ridges (in these regions since April it is dry and very warm). When the large Rossby waves break up, or their amplitude decreases, the atmosphere will move, and the weather will become normal for this time.
Hysmeteo Rossby Waves
The main driving force of the atmosphere is the energy of the Sun. However, its rays fall on the Earth at different angles. Because of this, large temperature contrasts arise between the equator and the poles. While at the equator the Sun is at its zenith almost all year round, the polar regions receive light and heat only during the summer season. But since the atmosphere tends to heat balance, the warm air from the equatorial regions is sent to the poles. This leads to the formation of areas of low pressure in the temperate and high latitudes of the planet.
As a rule, they occur at the polar front, where cold polar air masses from the north meet warm subtropical air from the south. The zone of separation of air masses is a narrow wavy ribbon, which, by the name of the scientist who described it, was called the Rossby waves.
Rossby waves are several thousand kilometers long. 3-6 such waves usually fit around the circumference of the globe.
Rossby waves play an important role in the general circulation system on the planet. They correspond to the axis of tropospheric and stratospheric jet streams, which control the location of cyclones and anticyclones and thus ensure heat exchange between low and high latitudes.
Under certain conditions, Rossby waves can become stationary, blocking the usual westerly transport due to the Coriolis force, and even forming the opposite - easterly waves. In this case, cold air from the polar regions flows to the subtropics, and subtropical air flows to the pole. As a result, large weather anomalies with different signs occur in the adjacent regions of the planet.
It's no secret that the climate of our planet is changing, and recently it has been happening very quickly. Snow falls in Africa, and incredible heat is observed in our latitudes in summer. Many different theories have already been put forward about the causes and likely consequences of such a change. Some talk about the coming apocalypse, while others convince that there is nothing wrong with that. Let's see what are the causes of climate change, who is to blame and what to do?
Yakutia tamed extreme climate
It's all about melting arctic ice…
The Arctic ice that covers the Arctic Ocean did not allow the inhabitants of temperate latitudes to freeze in winter. "The reduction in Arctic ice extent is directly related to heavy snowfalls in winter in temperate latitudes and incredible heat in summer," says Stephen Vavrus, senior researcher at the Institute. environmental research Nelson.
The scientist explained that the heated regions over regions in temperate latitudes and the cold Arctic air created a certain difference in atmospheric pressure. Air masses moved from west to east, causing ocean currents to move and generating strong winds. “Now the Arctic is moving into a new state,” says scientist David Titley, who worked for the US Navy. He noted that the melting process ice is coming very quickly, and by 2020 the Arctic will be completely free of ice in summer.
Recall that the Antarctic and the Arctic work like huge air conditioners: any weather anomalies quickly moved and were destroyed by winds and currents. Recently, due to the melting of ice, the air temperature in the polar regions has been rising, so the natural mechanism of "mixing" the weather stops. As a result, weather anomalies (heat, snowfalls, frosts or showers) "get stuck" in one area much longer than before
Global warming on earth
UN specialists predict disasters for our planet in the near future due to global warming. Today, everyone has already begun to get used to the crazy tricks of the weather, realizing that something utterly going on with the climate. The main threat is the production activity of man, since a lot of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. According to the theories of some experts, this delays the thermal radiation of the Earth, leads to overheating, resembling the greenhouse effect.
Over the past 200 years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by a third, and the average temperature on the planet has risen by 0.6 degrees. Temperatures in the northern hemisphere of the planet rose more in a century than in the previous thousand years. If the same rates of industrial growth continue on Earth, then by the end of this century, global climate change threatens humanity - the temperature will rise by 2-6 degrees, and the oceans will rise by 1.6 meters.
To prevent this from happening, the Kyoto Protocol was developed, main goal which is to limit carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It should be noted that warming in itself is not so dangerous. The climate that was 50 centuries BC will return to us. Our civilization in those comfortable conditions developed normally. Not warming is dangerous, but its suddenness. Climate change is happening so fast that it leaves no time for humanity to adapt to these new conditions.
Most from climate change the people of Africa and Asia will suffer, which, moreover, are now experiencing a population boom. According to Robert Watson, leader of the UN panel of experts, warming will have a negative impact on agriculture, there will be terrible droughts, which will cause a lack of drinking water and various epidemics. Besides abrupt change climate leads to the formation of destructive typhoons, which have become more frequent in recent years.
Consequences of global warming
The consequences can be truly catastrophic. Deserts will expand, floods and storms will become more frequent, fever and malaria will spread. Yields will drop significantly in Asia and Africa, but they will rise in Southeast Asia. Floods will become more frequent in Europe, Holland and Venice will go into the depths of the sea. New Zealand and Australia will be thirsty, and the east coast of the United States will be in the zone of destructive storms, there will be coastal erosion. Ice drift in the Northern Hemisphere will start two weeks earlier. The ice cover of the Arctic will be reduced by about 15 percent. In Antarctica, the ice will recede by 7-9 degrees. Tropical ice in the mountains will also melt South America, Africa and Tibet. Migratory birds will spend more time in the north.
What should Russia expect?
Russia, according to some scientists, will suffer from global warming 2-2.5 times more than the rest of the planet. This is related to the fact that Russian Federation drowns in snow. White reflects the sun, and black - on the contrary, attracts. Widespread snowmelt will change the reflectivity and cause additional warming of the land. As a result, wheat will be grown in Arkhangelsk, and watermelons in St. Petersburg. Global warming can deal a strong blow to the Russian economy as well, as the permafrost begins to melt under the cities of the Far North, where the pipelines that support our economy are located.
What to do?
Now the problem of controlling carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere is being solved with the help of the quota system provided for by the Kyoto Protocol. Within the framework of this system, governments of various countries set limits for energy and other enterprises on emissions of substances that pollute the atmosphere. First of all, it concerns carbon dioxide. These permits can be freely bought and sold. For example, a certain industrial enterprise has reduced the volume of emissions, as a result of which they have an "surplus" of the quota.
These surpluses they sell to other enterprises, which are cheaper to buy them than to take real measures to reduce emissions. Dishonest businessmen earn good money on this. This approach does little to improve the situation with climate change. Therefore, some experts suggested introducing a direct tax on carbon dioxide emissions.
However, this decision was never made. Many agree that quotas or taxes are ineffective. There is a need to encourage a shift from fossil fuels to innovative energy technologies that add little or no increase in greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Two economists from McGill University,
Christopher Green and Isabelle Galyana recently presented a project that proposed $100 billion annually in energy technology research. The money for this can be taken from the tax on carbon dioxide emissions. These funds would be enough to introduce new production technologies that would not pollute the atmosphere. Economists estimate that every dollar spent on Scientific research, will help to avoid 11 dollars. damage from climate change.
There is another way. It is difficult and expensive, but it can completely solve the problem of melting glaciers if all the countries of the Northern Hemisphere act decisively and together. Some experts propose to create in the Bering Strait hydraulic structure, capable of regulating water exchange between the Arctic,
Quiet and Atlantic Oceans. In some circumstances, it must act as a dam and prevent the passage of water from Pacific Ocean to the Arctic, and in other circumstances - as a powerful pumping station that will pump water from the North Arctic Ocean to Quiet. This maneuver artificially creates the mode of the end of the ice age. The climate is changing, every inhabitant of our Earth feels it. And it changes very quickly. Therefore, it is necessary for countries to unite and find optimal solutions to overcome this problem. After all, everyone will suffer from climate change.
Russian scientists do not always agree with the forecasts and hypotheses of their Western colleagues. Pravda.Ru asked the Head of the Climatology Laboratory of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. geographical sciences Andrey Shmakin:
- Only non-specialists, non-meteorologists talk about the cold snap. If you read our hydrometeorological service reports, it clearly states that warming is on the way.
What awaits us all, no one knows. Now it's warming up. The consequences are very different. There are positive ones, and there are negative ones. In Russia, warming is simply more pronounced than in many other regions of the world, this is true, and the consequences can be both positive and negative. What is the effect, what are the advantages - this must be carefully considered.
Let's say a negative phenomenon is yes, the thawing of permafrost, the spread of diseases, there may be some increase in forest fires. But there are also positives. These are the reduction of the cold season, the lengthening of the agricultural season, the increase in the productivity of grasses and grass communities, and forests. Lots of different consequences. Opening of the North Sea route for navigation, lengthening of this navigation. And this is not done on the basis of some hasty statements.
- How fast goes process changes climate?
“It's a slow process. In any case, you can adapt to it and develop adaptation measures. This is a process on the scale of several decades, at least, and even more. It's not like tomorrow - "that's it, goons, grab your bags - the station is leaving", there is no such thing.
— U our scientists a lot of works on the this topic?
- A lot of. For starters, take a few years ago there was a report called "Assessment Report on Climate Change in Russia". It was published by the Russian hydrometeorological service with the involvement of scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and universities. This is a serious analytical work, everything is considered there, how the climate is changing, what are the consequences for different regions Russia.
- Can whether how- then slow down this is process? Kyoto protocol, for example?
- The Kyoto Protocol in a practical sense brings very few results, namely those that are declared in it - to influence climate change, it is practically ineffective. Simply because the emission reductions it provides are extremely small, they have little effect on the overall global picture of these elections. It's just not efficient.
Another thing is that he paved the way for agreements in this area. It was the first agreement of its kind. If the parties then acted actively and tried to work out new agreements, this could bring some results. Now new documents have come into force instead of the Kyoto Protocol, it has expired. And they are still just as little effective in the main. Some countries have no restrictions at all, some have very small restrictions on emissions. In general, it is difficult technologically, because it is almost impossible to completely switch to such technologies in order not to produce any emissions into the atmosphere. This is a very expensive undertaking, no one will go for it. Therefore, rely only on this ...
- What kind- then other measures?
- Firstly, it is not considered absolutely established that in general a person influences the climate system so much. Of course, it influences, this is undoubted, but the degree of this influence is a matter of discussion. Different scholars hold different points of view.
The measures should basically be apparently adaptive. Because even without any person, the climate is still changing according to its internal laws. It's just that humanity should be ready for climate change in different directions and taking into account the effects that this can generate.
A sudden, powerful, anomalous icy shock wave covered Sardinia, an Italian island in the Mediterranean Sea, enveloping it in a 30 cm deep “snow blanket.” This happened after temperatures suddenly dropped from 35°C to 12°C, despite wave across the continent on August 2, 2018. The temperature dropped to 12 degrees and a 30cm hailstone cover caused havoc on busy roads. Witnesses are shocked by the "Snow Blanket" on the roads, just minutes after a sweltering 35°C heat wave.
The strange hail was caught on camera by drivers on Strada 131 in Campeda, Sardinia, which prompted dozens of calls to emergency services.
A sudden anomalous sharp change in temperature and a powerful hail caused traffic chaos among motorists, including accidents.
A strange burst of cold temperatures was also felt in neighboring towns, including Mamoiada, Sorgono and Tonara.
Viewers on the Internet describe the weather videos from Sardinia as "incredible", while others claim that "the end is near" because of the strange weather.
Despite this week's ice blast, the Italian island has already snapped back to scorching temperatures right now.
Weather chaos in Saudi Arabia
An anomalous heavy hail hit the southwest of Saudi Arabia.
Heavy rains and anomalous hail have engulfed Khamis Mushayt province as the Persian Gulf suffers from scorching summer heat.
The weather has gone crazy!
So what is happening to the weather and climate around the world?
Geoengineering? Weather wars? Global climate change? Or something else that is much more terrible and to which we are irreversibly approaching?
Michael Snyder: Serious global changes have begun on our planet. And this is just the beginning
Our planet is undergoing major global changes, and experts are looking for answers. AT last days some believe that we are witnessing the natural development of "anthropogenic climate change", but this explanation is generally received with great skepticism. Something really dramatic is going on with the globe, and it's not just because the amount of carbon dioxide in the air has suddenly reached some magical "tipping point."
But without a doubt, the temperature is rising and getting hotter. In July, Death Valley experienced “the most hot month ever recorded on the planet." In Europe, Saturday has been billed as the hottest day in Europe, with temperatures in Lisbon, Portugal expected to top 107 degrees (Fahrenheit) on both Saturday and Sunday. On the other side of the planet, a devastating drought in Australia is devastating farms “like cancer,” and North Korea is so hot that the government has declared an “unprecedented natural disaster”:
This week, the North Korean government called the country's record high temperatures an "unprecedented natural disaster" and said the country is working to address the problem.
An editorial published on Thursday in the ruling party's newspaper Rodong Sinmun highlighted the difficulties caused by a prolonged period of high temperatures leading to losses in the agricultural sector. North Korea particularly to crops such as rice and corn. The newspaper urged North Koreans to act as a unit and "show patriotic zeal in the ongoing campaign to prevent heat damage."
In California, extreme heat and drought continue to fuel the worst wildfires in state history:
Crews battling the deadly Northern California wildfires are bracing for another day of hot, dry conditions that could drive the blaze into new areas and threaten more homes.
More than 15,000 employees are on the lines of 18 big fires across California on Saturday, according to Cal Fire. So far, the fires since June have killed 8 people, burned more than 559,000 acres, and damaged or destroyed more than 1,800 structures. Approximately 17,000 homes remain at risk from these fires, and approximately 45,000 residents have been evacuated."
Ultimately, this could turn out to be the worst wildfire year California has ever seen.
Of course, there have been bad years for wildfires before. But what we haven't seen before is a firestorm spreading at 143 mph.
"On Thursday, the NWS looked at the debris left behind and identified a fiery whirlwind, commonly known as a fire tornado, that swept through the area between 7:30 p.m. and 8 p.m. July 26.
It had a speed of 143 miles per hour, turning heavy-duty high tension power line towers into twisted pieces of metal."
When I first heard about this fire tornado, I was completely stunned.
I have never heard of a fire tornado of this size in the United States, and apparently the experts haven't either...
"It historical event in the US,” Craig Clements, director of the Fire Weather Research Laboratory at State University state of San Jose. "This is the strongest fire tornado ever recorded."
In other areas of the southwest, the drought continues to intensify and this is starting to produce huge dust storms.
For example, what just happened in the city of Phoenix...
A huge wall of dust enveloped the Phoenix metro area on Thursday, the second monsoon storm in four days.
Officials in international airport Phoenix Sky Harbor said flights were delayed until visibility improved.
National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists said dust in the Phoenix area brought near-zero visibility for drivers on Thursday evening.
Of course, dust storm less destructive than a "fire tornado" in the short term, but as we saw in the 1930s, a consistent pattern of giant dust storms can absolutely cripple a nation.
And let's not forget all the upheavals that come with the earth's crust our planet.
On Sunday, Indonesia was shaken by a magnitude 7.0 earthquake...
So why is all this happening?
Yes, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air is increasing, but scientists assure that once on our planet there was much more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than today, and our planet then flourished in these conditions.
But the mainstream media will continue to tell us that the changes we are seeing on Earth are caused by global warming and that if we change course we can go back to how things were before.
No, we can't go back now because the changes that are taking place are out of our control.
Global changes are taking place on our planet, and this is just the beginning. At the moment, these Earth changes are still a minor annoyance for many people, but pretty soon no one will be able to ignore them. Nobody.